Apple Pay Predicted to Account for Half of Mobile Wallet Users by 2020

Must be a slow news day: market research blah coughed up by Juniper Research is mindlessly regurgitated by MacRumors and AppleInsider. Free advertising for Juniper Research, you go Juniper Research.

To save you the trouble of clicking click bait here is a summary, >with comments:

  • Contactless payments will exceed the $1 trillion mark for the first time in 2018, a year earlier than previously anticipated by Juniper.
    >That’s still small
  • “We believe that growth over the next 5 years will continue to be dominated by offerings from the major OEM players.”
  • Contactless card payments are the strongest across Far East & China and Rest of Asia Pacific.
    >Double Duh and ‘Far East’ is a quaint stupid UK expression that should be shot
  • Contactless Ticketing Gains Traction: Beyond in-store payments, the research forecasts rapid growth in contactless ticketing
    >Japanese IC transit card daily transactions (transit & e-money) top 7 million most of it still plastic
  • Juniper forecasts nearly 10 billion mobile contactless ticketing transactions, ie tickets purchased or validated, by 2022, with North America dominating the sector, followed by the Far East & China.
    >Oh boy, here it comes

Back in March I wrote:

One thing is clear: for smartphones more so than it was with plastic smartcards, transit is the golden uptake path for contactless payments but the combination is most successful when a transit platform matches up with a smartphone one.

Credit card companies are falling over each other to leverage EMV contactless to take control of transit ticketing away from transit agencies. It’s a classic “give us your money and we will save you money,” scam. As I have said many times EMV contactless sucks at transit. Singapore transit users are complaining of fried plastic contactless credit cards and of card issuers deactivating cards mid-transit for being over limit. This is the price for letting credit card companies manage transit ticketing.

The real fun will start when transit agencies wake up to discover they sold their souls to the credit card industry: transit agencies don’t decide who and who does not ride, the credit companies do.

Good luck to the New York Subway system as they phase out the trusty Closed Loop MetroCard system for a Frankenstein Open Loop mish-mash of EMV contactless and QR Codes. The dream of a transit payment platform for the great New York Subway remains a pipe dream.

Oh and one more thing, if Apple divorces Apple Watch from iPhone and allows direct Apple Pay card loading, Apple Pay will rule the world.

New York Subway Contactless Gate
Japanese IT Journalist Junya Suzuki photo of new contactless transit gate in New York