Apple Pay Suica Market Share Math

One side benefit from the fake NFC TIMES article is that we now have the latest Mobile Suica issuance numbers direct from JR East: as of August 2019 total Suica issue is 78 million, Mobile Suica is 7.8 million. This is 10% exactly and has nothing to do with transaction volume, but let’s have fun and run some numbers.

If there is anything I have learned in the past 3 years, I am certain that Apple Pay Suica users use Suica much more than regular plastic Suica users. The Apple Pay ‘recharge anywhere, anytime’ factor, the ability to see what the Suica balance is at a glance, plus the magic of services like Suica Auto-Recharge, all combine to completely transform Suica into a super card. Let’s be conservative and say that Apple Pay Suica users use their Suica at least twice as much as regular plastic users, though it is probably 3 x ~ 4 x more.

In a simple hypothetical one on one scenario with 2x Mobile Suica transactions, Mobile Suica would account for 20% of total Suica transaction volume though I think 30%~35% is probably a more realistic estimate. When you factor in the cost of plastic Suica issue with its lower transaction volume, it’s clear that Mobile Suica is the future of the Suica platform.

What about Apple Pay Suica market share? There are 7.8 million virtual Suica cards installed on iPhone and Android smartphones. Let’s be conservative and say 40% of that total is iPhone/Apple Watch Apple Pay Suica, which is about 3.1 million. But let’s pull out that interesting survey from a few months back that found only 1 in 3 iPhone users who can use Suica (global NFC iPhone), actually install and use Suica: 3.1 x 3 = 9.36 million.

9.4 million Apple Pay Suica capable iPhones exist in Japan. This is a very conservative estimate but already more than the total Mobile Suica issue base. Add in all those iPhone SE/6/6S devices that can’t do FeliCa begging to be upgraded to global NFC spec iPhone… and I believe that Jennifer Bailey and the Apple Pay team are looking at a golden 2020 Tokyo Olympics opportunity for Apple Pay Suica. Now all we need is a good marketing campaign from Apple to mine it.

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