Apple Pay Contactless Adoption Outlook 4Q 2020

MacRumors posted an interesting comment Tim Cook made in the 4Q 2020 earnings call

As you can imagine in this environment, people are less wont to hand over a card. Contactless payment has taken on a different level of adoption and I don’t think we’ll go back. The United States has been lagging in contactless payments and I think the pandemic may very well put the U.S. on a different trajectory there. We are very bullish on this area and there are more things that Apple can do in this space so this is an area of great interest to us.

What exactly are the ‘more things that Apple can do in this space’ Tim is talking about? There are two iOS 14 Apple Pay features that haven’t arrived yet: App Clips and Apple Pay QR Code Payments.

App Clips are ‘here’ but you wouldn’t know it. An October 22 tweet announced 2 Tokyo coffee shops offering App Clips, the debut locations for Japan. NFCW reports ExxonMobil’s ‘point and pay’ App Clip with App Clip Code stickers at USA gas pumps though only the NFC tag part is working. ExxonMobil rolled those out the same time as Japan. Ken Nishimura of Coral Capital has an interestingly detailed write up of the Tokyo App Clips launch with a screen recoding of the App Clips order process.

We are cashless…App Clips at Tailored Cafe but the nifty Apple-designed App Clip Code stickers aren’t available in Japan yet (Coral Capital blog)

The problem is that the Apple-designed App Clip Codes aren’t fully ready yet and require a future iOS 14 update (iOS 14.3?) to enable optical code reading, as noted in the iOS 14 web page fine print. Also note the 2 flavors of NFC tag reading iPhones: 1) automatic NFC with reader mode (iPhone Xs and later), 2) manual Control Center NFC scan mode (pre-iPhone XS).

I expect iOS 14 Apple Pay QR Code Payments to arrive at the same time. It only makes sense to enable and launch App Clip Codes + Apple Pay QR Code Payments together as one rollout. The only question is announcement timing. We already have the ‘soft’ App Clips Code October 22 launch in Japan and USA. If Apple holds another event this year, I think there’s a very good chance we’ll hear about it.

UPDATE
iOS 14.3 beta has support for Apple designed App Clip Code scanning. Here is a quick screen recording of the scan process and animation. The App Clip Code is a photo of the ExxonMobile gas pump stickers that launched October 22. The App Clip does not load because the ExxonMobile App is not available in Japan.