MacRumors and other sites are reporting the Counterpoint Research note that indicates iPhone SE sales will be the ‘bright spot’ in Apple’s Q3 2020 quarter. I have alway said that iPhone SE will do well and it will be an especially bright spot in Japan because: (1) it’s the only Touch ID model in the Face ID sucks with face mask era and everybody in Japan is wearing face masks, (2) the easy entry point SE upgrade from pre-iPhone 7 brings those users into the Apple Pay Japan orbit as Japan goes cashless, there’s a regular flow of first time SE ‘I’m on Apple Pay Suica now’ tweets.
The analysis matches up with Japanese SE user comments but, surprisingly, does not mention the iPhone SE Touch ID upside:
Apple’s iPhone SE sales are “unlikely” to cannibalize sales of the 2020 iPhone 12 models because iPhone SE purchasers are “more pragmatic” about price, less concerned with 5G connectivity, and the smaller display is “not considered a hindrance.”
In the current ‘who knows what’s happening today’ environment with talk of another soft lockdown to combat rising 2nd wave COVID infections, iPhone users in Japan will remain hyper pragmatic and face masks will continue to be de rigueur.
For that reason I don’t think iPhone 12 will do very well here and high end iPhone sales will be sluggish until Apple delivers a version of Face ID that works seamlessly with face masks, or something else like in-display Touch ID. 5G won’t move the sales needle. For the time being iPhone SE will carry water for the entire iPhone line in Japan. We’ll find out the full story at the Q3 2020 earnings call on July 30.