Mobile TOICA is launching March 17 for Android Osaifu Keitai. Apple Wallet support is coming “very soon”, shortly after if not the same day. It’s a little unclear but launch details should be coming in the next week or so. Google Wallet support might come years later, if at all: Mobile ICOCA on Android is still Osaifu Keitai only. The last 2 mobile transit card service launches went like this:
Mobile PASMO: Android Osaifu Keitai launch March 18, 2020, Apple Pay PASMO launch October 6, 2020.
Mobile ICOCA: Android Osaifu Keitai launch March 22, 2023, Apple Pay ICOCA launch June 27, 2023.
In each instance Apple Pay launched later, and caused an Apple Pay server meltdown. Direct Apple Wallet provisioning makes things so easy that users rush to load up on launch day. Osaifu Keitai Mobile TOICA might launch first as Japanese operators have more control and the list of supported credit cards is extremely limited: JR West issue only for Mobile ICOCA with JR Central issue cards certainly joining the lineup. Apple Pay TOICA will have the same direct Wallet provisioning and open ended payment card recharge backend as Apple Pay ICOCA, but as always, non-JP issue VISA cards will be blocked by VISA as they block those on Apple Pay ICOCA. From a technical standpoint JR West could easily launch Apple Pay TOICA / Mobile TOICA the same day as Mobile ICOCA is ‘hosting’ everything. It’s not really hosting even, just a different mobile transit card being offered on what’s already running: same servers, same app, same operator.
TOICA has a much smaller user base than Suica, PASMO or ICOCA, any launch day user rush to mobile should be easily manageable. Nevertheless, a staggered launch is playing it safe. Better have customers wait a little instead of pissing off Apple Pay users with a lousy launch experience. JR Central probably doesn’t care as long as it works. They never put much effort into TOICA anyway. The sudden change of heart and push to expand TOICA to 100% coverage plus mobile is tied to feeding passenger traffic to the Linear Chuo Shinkansen line, whenever that finally opens.
At least JR Central finally understands they need a complete mobile approach, not just EX Shinkansen eTicketing. I was reminded of this recently watching what people are using at JR East stations, it’s easily 80% mobile at the gates now. At the recent teppay press event, JR East and PASMO said they estimate 30 million are using Mobile Suica / Mobile PASMO. If JR West captured 4 million Mobile ICOCA users in just 2 years of full operation, I suspect it’s more.
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