The Apple Pay monopoly debate: are we really comparing Apples with Apples?

Ruimin Yang’s detailed and thoughtful post, “Apple Pay monopoly, are we really comparing ‘Apples’ with ‘Apples?“, outlines the entire Apple Pay system architecture, how it compares to other digital wallet platforms, (Google Pay, Samsung Pay) and what ‘open vs closed’ means in the whole ‘Apple Pay is a monopoly’ debate. I highly recommend it if you have any interest in digital wallet payments.

As Yang explains, ‘open’ is not easily defined and the options are not easily implemented, especially when it comes to Apple’s highly customized and constantly evolving Apple Pay platform built around their A/S series chip Secure Enclave and Embedded Secure Element. Apple has spent a lot of time, money and effort in building the Apple Pay brand as the high benchmark standard for secure, private and easy to use digital wallet transactions and services. It is not your standard off the shelf NFC + Secure Element package.

It is telling that Germany, a country with one of lowest rates of credit card use and whose banks fought to keep Apple Pay out, is pushing for ‘open NFC’ the most. It sounds like an across the board move but it’s really aimed at Apple Pay.

This is European business politics in the age of digital wallet wars: mobile payments and digital wallets have disrupted everything and the traditional players, banks and card companies i.e. the real gatekeepers, are doing everything they can to keep the upper hand by using the open NFC argument to force their own branding on Apple’s platform in place of Apple Pay.

In the European tradition, regulation is invariably the go to strategy for keeping the status quo. I still think Junya Suzuki has it right: the EU would never demand the same thing of Samsung or Huawei that they are demanding from Apple. In other words, politics.

Previous coverage:
What does open Apple Pay NFC really mean? (11-17-2019)
The Apple Pay EU antitrust investigation (6-20-2020)

Apple Pay PASMO and the coming transit IC card rush to mobile

Mobile PASMO was announced in January 2020, launched on Android Osaifu Keitai in March and will land on Apple Pay with the iOS 14 update this fall. As early as April Apple was already dropping hints that Apple Pay PASMO was on the way.

9 months is a quick turnaround for announcing and launching an entirely new mobile transit service across 2 digital wallet platforms: Android (Osaifu Keitai) and Apple Pay. It sure beats Cubic Transportation Systems who have yet to get Apple Pay Ventra out the door more than a year after it was first announced in March 2019 on the far less complex Chicago transit area.

While many Apple Pay users in Japan are happy to have PASMO, there is always that nagging question: if I already have Apple Pay Suica that works nationwide, what’s the point of Apple Pay PASMO? All the major transit cards are cross compatible, the only difference is commuter passes…and reward points. As FeliCa Dude so astutely explained in his excellent Reddit post, Mobile PASMO is a boondoggle, the result of JR East and PASMO Association failing to cooperate and mutually host commute plans…and points.

All Japanese transit cards are slightly different versions of Suica. There could easily be one national transit card and Japanese users absolutely would love having it, but ICOCA, TOICA, manaca, SUGOCA, Kitaca, nimoca and Hayaken want to hang on to commuter passes…and points. The good news is that (1) Mobile PASMO got off the ground in a very short time, (2) JR East is providing Mobile Suica cloud assets. I suspect Mobile Suica is likely hosting Mobile PASMO as well but whatever deal they cut is hush-hush.

Suica growth, the CASHLESS tax rebate effect, COVID and all that
Junya Suzuki beat me to the punch today with an excellent piece that covers the Apple Pay PASMO announcement and several recent Suica trends including the recent addition of Suica to Square. The most important one to me is the July 2020 edition JR East factsheet Suica section: “Number of e-money available shops”. The number of Suica ready stores increased 50% YOY by 324,000 in the March 2019~March 2020 fiscal year with store growth outside of station areas increasing the most.

This is a direct result of the CASHLESS Tax Rebate program which provided merchant subsidies for cashless infrastructure. That program ended June 30 but there is talk in government circles of implementing a similar program to boost the economy and drive cashless use in the COVID era.

JR East factsheet Suica Section

Suzuki san points out what I have said in other posts, Mobile Suica growth from the October 2016 Apple Pay Suica start point is remarkable: 9.3 million users as of March 2020. And the growth rate is accelerating. Smaller and less expensive mobile devices like Apple Watch with Apple Pay Suica and Garmin Suica make the mobile transition attractive for a wider number of users.

JR East factsheet Suica Section

With restricted travel in the COVID era every single transit company in Japan is facing tremendous pressure to reduce costs. Moving away from high cost plastic transit cards with cut and past Mobile Suica IT assets and next generation Suica card architecture will be the easiest way to do that.

The rush to mobile
It starts now. Apple Pay PASMO marks the start point of a transit IC card rush to mobile digital wallets. Mobile PASMO is rebranded Mobile Suica. With next generation aka Super Suica coming in 2021, at the very least I think we’ll see similar arrangements from JR West ICOCA, JR Central TOICA and other major transit IC cards. With the addition of MaaS NFC Tag Suica, we’ll see a faster, wider uptake of Mobile Suica and sister services for payments everywhere.

And for those Open Loop advocates out there Junya Suzuki has some surprising analysis regarding the Japanese transit scene: despite some limited installation such as Okinawa Monorail, he does’t see transit companies going in for Open Loop in any big way. Mag strip paper ticketing will gradually be eliminated as next generation transit gates go into service over the next few years but mobile transit cards and paper QR Codes will be the replacement, not Open Loop.

As I have said before, the whole ‘Open Loop vs Closed Loop aka EMV contactless bank cards vs Native IC transit cards’ debate is pre-mobile plastic era out of date thinking. Mobile wallets and apps have tossed that whole game out the window for good. Why do you think QR Code payments and UWB Touchless are coming to Apple Pay in iOS 14? It’s a whole new crazy game. Better get used to it.

The iPhone SE Bright Spot in Japan

MacRumors and other sites are reporting the Counterpoint Research note that indicates iPhone SE sales will be the ‘bright spot’ in Apple’s Q3 2020 quarter. I have alway said that iPhone SE will do well and it will be an especially bright spot in Japan because: (1) it’s the only Touch ID model in the Face ID sucks with face mask era and everybody in Japan is wearing face masks, (2) the easy entry point SE upgrade from pre-iPhone 7 brings those users into the Apple Pay Japan orbit as Japan goes cashless, there’s a regular flow of first time SE ‘I’m on Apple Pay Suica now’ tweets.

The analysis matches up with Japanese SE user comments but, surprisingly, does not mention the iPhone SE Touch ID upside:

Apple’s ‌iPhone SE‌ sales are “unlikely” to cannibalize sales of the 2020 iPhone 12 models because ‌iPhone SE‌ purchasers are “more pragmatic” about price, less concerned with 5G connectivity, and the smaller display is “not considered a hindrance.”

In the current ‘who knows what’s happening today’ environment with talk of another soft lockdown to combat rising 2nd wave COVID infections, iPhone users in Japan will remain hyper pragmatic and face masks will continue to be de rigueur.

For that reason I don’t think iPhone 12 will do very well here and high end iPhone sales will be sluggish until Apple delivers a version of Face ID that works seamlessly with face masks, or something else like in-display Touch ID. 5G won’t move the sales needle. For the time being iPhone SE will carry water for the entire iPhone line in Japan. We’ll find out the full story at the Q3 2020 earnings call on July 30.

One week in

Apple Pay Octopus has been in service for a week so I asked for some Apple Watch field impressions on Twitter. Overall, users seem pretty impressed:

I am using it daily and it is really out of this world. I use it on my watch and now I can literally go out for a jog or hike with just wearing the watch.

It works perfectly on my AW so far. But from I’ve heard on LIHKG, there some users facing the difficulties on the express mode. Mostly are requiring passcode when going through the gate.

It’s mostly positive. However there’re times where the reader isn’t sensitive enough and need to linger the watch longer. Also going to work first thing in the morning but forgetting to enter pass code in the apple watch is frustrating since it doesn’t inform you need to unlock.

Been using AW Octopus everyday. Use cases include MTR, tram, ferry, 7-11, eating meals at all sorts of restaurants like Tai Hing, Ki’s Roasted Goose, Pret etc. Octopus on Apple Pay drastically improved HK’s cashless experience. It’s definitely okay for me to go out with only AW. Not even with my phone. Feels really good. The speed of payment is also very remarkable. However, the reader in Tai Hing seems to need an extra second to detect my AW, not sure why. Plus AW users might want to wear it on the right wrist, which makes passing MTR gates easier.

Using it everywhere. All good and same speed as physical card, expect bus and some small shops were like a heartbeat slower. Also twice there was no “ping” confirmation sound. Tried AW on my right for mtr, its only good for that, imo left is more comfy for other occasions…

… after so many years of waiting, finally an apple pay suica experience in HK.

You can follow the Twitter thread here. I have noticed a few small gate lag hiccups on my Apple Watch Suica since upgrading to watchOS 6.2.5/6.2.6. The lag is especially noticeable if a workout is in progress. The passcode request at the gate could indicate that Express Transit is deactivated somewhere along the way, either by a loose band activating the wrist detector into thinking Apple Watch was taken off the wrist, or it could be something else.

My Apple Watch insisted that I create a 6 digit passcode recently and disabled the 4 digit passcode option for a few days. Who knows, the passcode requests that some HK users are seeing could be a watchOS bug or an Octopus reader side issue that can be addressed with a firmware update.

Apple Watch is still prone to OS version performance issues that disappeared from iPhone with A12 Bionic and Express Transit with power reserve. Apple Pay transactions on A12 Bionic and later bypass most of the iOS layer and are directly handled in the A12/A13 Bionic Secure Enclave and Secure Element. It makes a big performance difference for Suica and Octopus.

Hopefully the next watchOS update will improve Suica and Octopus performance. Better yet let’s hope that Apple Watch 6 introduces a Apple S6 chip with Express Transit with power reserve. That would solve the watchOS version NFC performance issues for good, just like it did for iPhone.

A12/A13 Bionic makes a big difference in NFC performance,

Apple Pay Octopus Launch Meltdown

Anybody could have seen this one coming. When Apple Pay Suica launched in 2016 we had 2 things: the iOS 10.1 update and the Apple Pay Japan service launch all coming at the start of a Tokyo commute weekday. Lots of iPhone users decided to upgrade and add their Suica to Apple Pay. By 7am local Tokyo time Mobile Suica and Apple Pay iCloud servers were overloaded and not responding.

This time we had 3 things: Apple Pay Octopus, the iOS 13.5.1 update and Apple Maps Hong Kong Transit all launching at the same time. By 11 am Octopus servers were overloaded and not responding, the usual ‘small number of users’ were complaining on Twitter far earlier than that. Duh, so much for anticipating iPhone user demand. Octopus Cards Limited has posted an apology and instructions to fetch Octopus cards lost in the cloud. It a simple matter of adding the Octopus card to Wallet again. In some cases Octopus customers are getting refunds.

At least we know the launch was a success in that lots of iPhone and Apple Watch Hong Kong users apparently want to use Apple Pay Octopus. I guarantee this will drive mobile payments use far more than regular bank cards. Riding the transit and buying stuff with Express Transit is a no brainer.